Drillstring Washout Diagnosis Using Friction Estimation and Statistical Change Detection

In oil and gas drilling, corrosion or tensile stress can give small holes in the drillstring, which can cause leakage and prevent sufficient flow of drilling fluid. If such \emph{washout} remains undetected and develops, the consequence can be a complete twist-off of the drillstring. Aiming at early washout diagnosis, this paper employs an adaptive observer to estimate friction parameters in the nonlinear process. Non-Gaussian noise is a nuisance in the parameter estimates, and dedicated generalized likelihood tests are developed to make efficient washout detection with the multivariate $t$-distribution encountered in data. Change detection methods are developed using logged sensor data from a horizontal 1400 m managed pressure drilling test rig. Detection scheme design is conducted using probabilities for false alarm and detection to determine thresholds in hypothesis tests. A multivariate approach is demonstrated to have superior diagnostic properties and is able to diagnose a washout at very low levels. The paper demonstrates the feasibility of fault diagnosis technology in oil and gas drilling

Foreword to the thematic cluster: the Arctic in Rapid Transition — marine ecosystems

The Arctic is warming and losing sea ice. Happening at a much faster rate than previously expected, these changes are causing multiple ecosystem feedbacks in the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic in Rapid Transition (ART) initiative was developed by early-career scientists as an integrative, international, multidisciplinary, long-term pan-Arctic network to study changes and feedbacks among the physical and biogeochemical components of the Arctic Ocean and their ultimate impacts on biological productivity on different timescales. In 2012, ART jointly organized with the Association of Polar Early Career Scientists their second science workshop—Overcoming Challenges of Observation to Model Integration in Marine Ecosystem Response to Sea Ice Transitions—at the Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences, in Sopot. This workshop aimed to identify linkages and feedbacks between atmosphere–ice–ocean forcing and biogeochemical processes, which are critical for ecosystem function, land–ocean interactions and productive capacity of the Arctic Ocean. This special thematic cluster of Polar Research brings together seven papers that grew out of workgroup discussions. Papers examine the climate change impacts on various ecosystem elements, providing important insights on the marine ecological and biogeochemical processes on various timescales. They also highlight priority areas for future research

Fault diagnosis of downhole drilling incidents using adaptive observers and statistical change detection

Downhole abnormal incidents during oil and gas drilling cause costly delays, and may also potentially lead to dangerous scenarios. Different incidents will cause changes to different parts of the physics of the process. Estimating the changes in physical parameters, and correlating these with changes expected from various defects, can be used to diagnose faults while in development. This paper shows how estimated friction parameters and flow rates can be used to detect and isolate the type of incident, as well as isolating the position of a defect. Estimates are shown to be subjected to non-Gaussian, $t$-distributed noise, and a dedicated multivariate statistical change detection approach is used that detects and isolates faults by detecting simultaneous changes in estimated parameters and flow rates. The properties of the multivariate diagnosis method are analyzed, and it is shown how detection and false alarm probabilities are assessed and optimized using data-based learning to obtain thresholds for hypothesis testing. Data from a 1400 m horizontal flow loop is used to test the method, and successful diagnosis of the incidents drillstring washout (pipe leakage), lost circulation, gas influx, and drill bit nozzle plugging are demonstrated

Metadata for a long-term climate series from the Russian meteorological station “Pyramiden” (1948-1957) at Svalbard ( Short Communication)

Soviet weather station "Pyramiden" was located in the same mining settlement on the northern shore of the Mimer bukta (Billefjorden, West Spitsbergen Island). Research station operated from 1948 to 1957, as a branch of Barentsburg research observatory (Grnfjorden, West Spitsbergen Island). It was the only station that held regular meteorological observations in the inland areas of the archipelago. Observational data (in the form of handwritten books and tables) are preserved in state fond of Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI, St. Petersburg, Russia). So far, these data have not been digitized and with their help not conducted any climate researches. Fruitful scientific collaboration between MET-Norway (Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo) and AARI helped preserve these unique data to the polar scientific community. Now specialists-climatologists of both institutions complete joint climate researches that in the near future will be available to scientists, studying modern climate changes in the polar regions of the Earth

Warming of Atlantic Water in two west Spitsbergen fjords over the last century (1912-2009)

The recently observed warming of west Spitsbergen fjords has led to anomalous sea-ice conditions and has implications for the marine ecosystem. We investigated long-term trends of maximum temperature of Atlantic Water (AW) in two west Spitsbergen fjords. The data set is composed of more than 400 oceanographic stations for Isfjorden and Grønfjorden (78.1°N), spanning from 1876 to 2009. Trends throughout the last century (1912–2009) indicate an increase of 1.9°C and 2.1°C in the maximum temperature during autumn for Isfjorden and Grønfjorden, respectively. A recent warming event in the beginning of the 21st century is found to be more than 1°C higher than the second warmest period in the time series. Mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) data from ERA-40 and ERA-Interim data sets produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and mean temperature in the core of the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) at the Sørkapp Section along 76.3°N were used to explain the variability of the maximum temperature. A correlation analysis confirmed previous findings, showing that variability in the oceanography of the fjords can be explained mainly by two external factors: AW temperature variability in the WSC and regional patterns of the wind stress field. To take both processes into consideration, a multiple regression model accounting for temperature in the WSC core and MSLP over the area was developed. The predicted time series shows a reasonable agreement with observed maxima temperature in Isfjorden for the period 1977–2009 (N=24), with a statistically significant multiple correlation coefficient of 0.60 (R2=0.36) at P<0.05.publishedVersio

Sea ice metadata for Billefjorden and Grnfjorden, Svalbard

Description of sea ice conditions in the fjords of Svalbard is crucial for sea transport as well as studies of local climate and climate change. Old observations from the Russian Hydrometeorological stations in the mining settlements Barentsburg (Grnfjorden) and Pyramiden (Billefjorden) have now been digitized. These visual and instrumental observations are archived in the State Archive of Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI) and Murmansk Branch of the Russian Hydrometeorological Service. In this paper, we bring an overview of the sea ice metadata with few examples of yearly changes in sea ice extent

Contrasting optical properties of surface waters across the Fram Strait and its potential biological implications

AbstractUnderwater light regime is controlled by distribution and optical properties of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and particulate matter. The Fram Strait is a region where two contrasting water masses are found. Polar water in the East Greenland Current (EGC) and Atlantic water in the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC) differ with regards to temperature, salinity and optical properties. We present data on absorption properties of CDOM and particles across the Fram Strait (along 79° N), comparing Polar and Atlantic surface waters in September 2009 and 2010. CDOM absorption of Polar water in the EGC was significantly higher (more than 3-fold) compared to Atlantic water in the WSC, with values of absorption coefficient, aCDOM(350), m−1 of 0.565±0.100 (in 2009) and 0.458±0.117 (in 2010), and 0.138±0.036 (in 2009) and 0.153±0.039 (in 2010), respectively. An opposite pattern was observed for particle absorption with higher absorption found in the eastern part of the Fram Strait. Average values of particle absorption (aP(440), m−1) were 0.016±0.013 (in 2009) and 0.014±0.011 (in 2010), and 0.047±0.012 (in 2009) and 0.016±0.014 (in 2010), respectively for Polar and Atlantic water. Thus absorption of light in eastern part of the Fram Strait is dominated by particles — predominantly phytoplankton, and the absorption of light in the western part of the strait is dominated by CDOM, with predominantly terrigenous origin. As a result the balance between the importance of CDOM and particulates to the total absorption budget in the upper 0–10m shifts across Fram Strait. Under water spectral irradiance profiles were generated using ECOLIGHT 5.4.1 and the results indicate that the shift in composition between dissolved and particulate material does not influence substantially the penetration of photosynthetic active radiation (PAR, 400–700nm), but does result in notable differences in ultraviolet (UV) light penetration, with higher attenuation in the EGC. Future changes in the Arctic Ocean system will likely affect EGC through diminishing sea-ice cover and potentially increasing CDOM export due to increase in river runoff into the Arctic Ocean. Role of attenuation of light by CDOM in determining underwater light regime will become more important, with a potential for future increase in marine productivity in the area of EGC due to elevated PAR and lowered UV light exposures

The Future of the Arctic: What Does It Mean for Sea Ice and Small Creatures?

The warming of our planet is changing the Arctic dramatically. The area covered by sea-ice is shrinking and the ice that is left is younger and thinner. We took part in an expedition to the Arctic, to study how these changes affect organisms living in and under the ice. Following this expedition, we found that storms can more easily break the thinner ice. Storms form cracks in the sea ice, allowing sunlight to pass into the water below, which makes algal growth possible. Algae are microscopic “plants” that grow in water or sea ice. Storms also brought thick heavy snow, which pushed the ice surface below the water. This flooded the snow and created slush. We discovered that this slush is another good habitat for algae. If Arctic sea ice continues to thin, and storms become more common, we expect that these algal habitats will become more important in the future

Linkages between the circulation and distribution of dissolved organic matter in the White Sea, Arctic Ocean

AbstractThe White Sea is a semi-enclosed Arctic marginal sea receiving a significant loading of freshwater (225–231km3yr−1 equaling an annual runoff yield of 2.5m) and dissolved organic matter (DOM) from river run-off. We report discharge weighed values of stable oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) of −14.0‰ in Northern Dvina river for the period 10 May–12 October 2012. We found a significant linear relationship between salinity (S) and δ18O (δ18O=−17.66±0.58+0.52±0.02×S; R2=0.96, N=162), which indicates a dominant contribution of river water to the freshwater budget and little influence of sea ice formation or melt. No apparent brine additions from sea-ice formation is evident in the White Sea deep waters as seen from a joint analysis of temperature (T), S, δ18O and aCDOM(350) data, confirming previous suggestions about strong tidal induced vertical mixing in winter being the likely source of the deep waters. We investigated properties and distribution of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the White Sea basin and coastal areas in summer. We found contrasting DOM properties in the inflowing Barents Sea waters and White Sea waters influenced by terrestrial runoff. Values of absorption by CDOM at 350nm (aCDOM(350)) and DOC (exceeding 10m−1 and 550µmoll−1, respectively) in surface waters of the White Sea basin are higher compared to other river-influenced coastal Arctic domains. Linear relationship between S and CDOM absorption, and S and DOC (DOC=959.21±52.99–25.80±1.79×S; R2=0.85; N=154) concentrations suggests conservative mixing of DOM in the White Sea. The strongest linear correlation between CDOM absorption and DOC was found in the ultraviolet (DOC=56.31±2.76+9.13±0.15×aCDOM(254); R2=0.99; N=155), which provides an easy and robust tool to trace DOC using CDOM absorption measurements as well as remote sensing algorithms. Deviations from this linear relationship in surface waters likely indicate contribution from different rivers along the coast of the White Sea. Characteristics of CDOM further indicate that there is limited removal or change in the DOM pool before it exits to the Barents Sea